It’s a Monday Night Football Double Header, which means double the games and double the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) opportunities. Whether you’re building your lineups or crafting a parlay, don’t rely on gut feel—lean on advanced DVOA metrics (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) to find the sharpest matchups and outperform the field.

Tonight’s matchups feature Lions vs Buccaneers and Seahawks vs Texans, with several exploitable props based on defensive weaknesses you can take advantage of.

Lions vs Buccaneers DFS Predictions

Emeka Egbuka / Sterling Shepard — Over Receiving Yards (Monitor Injury Report)

The Lions rank 32nd in DVOA vs WR2s, performing 50.4% worse than the league average. With Mike Evans returning to Tampa Bay’s lineup, Emeka Egbuka could be in line for a breakout performance as the secondary receiver.

If Egbuka is unable to play, Sterling Shepard becomes the de facto WR2 and should see an increased role. Wait for the final injury report before locking in either line—both players’ receiving yard props are expected to move depending on Egbuka’s availability.

Sam LaPorta — Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Tight ends have been a consistent problem for Tampa Bay’s defense. The Buccaneers rank 27th in DVOA vs TEs, allowing heavy production over the middle of the field. Sam LaPorta has been a reliable weapon for Detroit and should continue to see volume in a soft matchup, making his 48.5-yard prop a sharp DFS target.

Jahmyr Gibbs — Over 25.5 Receiving Yards

The Buccaneers also rank 27th in DVOA vs receiving running backs, giving up consistent check-down production. Gibbs’ receiving prop of 25.5 yards looks reachable, especially given his dual-threat usage and a high point total in this matchup.

Seahawks vs Texans DFS Predictions

AJ Barner — Under 25.5 Receiving Yards

The Texans pass defense has been elite, ranking 2nd overall in DVOA vs the pass and 3rd vs tight ends, performing 31.4% better than league average. That spells trouble for AJ Barner, whose line is set at 25.5 receiving yards. This matchup points firmly toward the under as Houston continues to shut down opposing TEs.

Nico Collins — Under 72.5 Receiving Yards

Seattle’s secondary has been quietly dominant against top receivers, ranking 5th overall in DVOA vs WR1s. While Collins is the engine of Houston’s passing attack, this matchup projects as one of his toughest of the season. His 72.5-yard line may be a touch high considering the defensive attention he’ll draw.

Woody Marks — Over 15.5 Receiving Yards

Seattle’s biggest weakness comes against receiving running backs, where they rank 24th in DVOA. Woody Marks has seen an increased role in the Texans backfield, and his 15.5-yard prop is low enough to take advantage of. Expect Marks to be active in the short passing game as Houston looks to exploit the Seahawks’ soft spot.

Best DFS Prop Picks for Monday Night Football

Top Play: Sam LaPorta Over 48.5 Receiving Yards — Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled vs tight ends, and LaPorta’s consistent target share makes this the safest prop of the slate.

Sleeper Pick: Woody Marks Over 15.5 Receiving Yards — With Seattle ranking 24th in DVOA vs receiving RBs, Marks’ expanded role gives him sneaky DFS value.

Best Under: AJ Barner Under 25.5 Receiving Yards — Houston’s top-tier TE coverage makes this an ideal under spot.

Final Thoughts: DFS Strategy for Monday Night Football

Tonight’s double header provides plenty of ways to gain an edge. Use DVOA data to identify where each defense is most vulnerable—tight ends and receiving backs stand out as key opportunities across both games.

Whether it’s Sam LaPorta finding seams vs Tampa Bay or Woody Marks catching passes out of the backfield vs Seattle, these edges can help you build smarter DFS lineups and parlays.

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