The Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers in a high-stakes Wild Card matchup that blends one of the NFL’s most lopsided historical rivalries with a very different recent trend profile. While Green Bay has owned this series over the years, Chicago’s home performance and late-season momentum make this game far more interesting than the history suggests.

Below is a breakdown of head-to-head trends, 2025–26 season data, and key player prop angles to help frame this Wild Card matchup.

Head-to-Head Series Trends

Historically, this rivalry has leaned heavily in Green Bay’s favor.

  • Green Bay has won 17 of the last 20 regular-season meetings
  • The Packers are 11–3 ATS in their last 14 games vs Chicago
  • At Soldier Field, Green Bay is 10–0 straight up and 8–2 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites

However, recent results suggest the gap may be narrowing.

  • In the two regular-season meetings in 2025, the home team won and covered in both games

That wrinkle is important, given this Wild Card game will be played in Chicago.

2025–26 Season & Recent Trends

Chicago Bears

Chicago has quietly been one of the more reliable teams against the number this season.

  • Home record: 6–2 SU, 5–3 ATS
  • Season ATS record: 10–7
  • As an underdog (1.5+ points): 5–5 ATS

One of the most consistent trends for Chicago has shown up late in games:

  • 4th-quarter totals have gone OVER in 10 of the Bears’ last 11 games

That suggests higher late-game scoring, whether from aggressive play-calling, defensive fatigue, or game-script pressure.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay enters the postseason with much shakier form.

  • Last 5 games: 1–4 ATS
  • Last 11 road games: 2–9 ATS
  • Season ATS record: 6–10

Despite those struggles, one trend continues to show up:

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 5 games

That points toward volatility rather than control—something that could matter in a playoff setting.

Player Prop Trends to Watch

Caleb Williams — Passing Yards

Williams has been trending upward down the stretch.

  • Over 204.5 passing yards in each of his last 3 games
  • Has gone over that number in 76% of games this season

Williams also threw for 250 yards in the Bears Week 16 overtime win against Green Bay.

Cole Kmet — Receiving Yards

Kmet has quietly become one of the Bears’ most consistent chain-movers.

  • Over 13.5 receiving yards in 5 straight games
  • Over the number in 7 of his last 10 games

In a playoff environment where short, high-percentage throws matter, Kmet’s role remains firmly intact.

Game Flow & Overall Outlook

This matchup presents a clash between:

  • Green Bay’s long-term dominance
  • Chicago’s strong home performance and recent ATS reliability

Key angles shaping this game:

  • Bears have consistently covered at home
  • Packers have struggled badly ATS on the road
  • Both teams show strong trends toward late-game scoring and overall overs

If Chicago can replicate the home-team success seen in the 2025 regular-season meetings, this Wild Card game may look far different than the rivalry’s past suggests.

Final Thoughts: Bears vs Packers Wild Card Game

History says Green Bay, but the numbers this season tell a more nuanced story. Chicago’s home strength, reliable ATS profile, and improving offensive trends give the Bears a legitimate case to compete—and potentially control key stretches of this game.

From player props to game totals, this matchup offers several data-backed angles worth paying attention to as the postseason kicks off.

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