It’s a Monday Night Football Double Header and that means a massive slate of DFS action. If you’re building your lineups or crafting a parlay tonight, you’ll want to lean on more than gut feel—you’ll want advanced metrics like DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) to find the sharpest edges.

Here’s a breakdown of the top player prop predictions for Dolphins vs Jets and Broncos vs Bengals, using DVOA to guide your DFS strategy.

Dolphins vs Jets DFS Predictions

Mason Taylor — Over 22.5 Receiving Yards

Tight ends are Miami’s kryptonite. The Dolphins rank 30th in DVOA vs TEs, allowing 46.9 receiving yards per game and performing 33% worse than league average in defending the position. While Miami performs better against receivers and running backs, they’ve consistently given production to tight ends. That gives Mason Taylor a prime opportunity to cash in on his receiving yards prop tonight.

Jaylen Waddle — Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

This is a great DFS matchup to target. The Jets rank 31st in DVOA against WR2s, performing 61% worse than league average. Enter Jaylen Waddle, who’s coming off back-to-back five-catch games. While he’s only topped 48.5 yards once this season, the data shows his best matchup yet. Expect Miami to lean on Waddle as a secondary weapon against New York’s struggling coverage unit.

Broncos vs Bengals DFS Predictions

RJ Harvey — Over 10.5 Receiving Yards

The rookie hasn’t made a splash yet, but tonight’s matchup sets up perfectly. Denver drafted RJ Harvey in the second round with hopes of developing him into Sean Payton’s versatile “joker” role. The Bengals rank dead last in DVOA vs receiving RBs, performing 83.2% worse than league average. This is a DFS sleeper pick with sneaky upside.

Evan Engram — Over 18.5 Receiving Yards

Denver’s big offseason addition gets back in action tonight, and the matchup couldn’t be better. The Bengals rank 25th in DVOA vs TEs, giving up 46.1 receiving yards per game to the position. Look for Engram to be integrated early as Denver tries to exploit another weak point in Cincinnati’s defense.

Chase Brown — Over 16.5 Receiving Yards

If Cincinnati wants to help Jake Browning settle in, short passes to running backs are the answer. The Broncos are elite against WR1s (11th) and WR2s (8th), but they rank 28th in DVOA vs receiving RBs. Chase Brown has cleared this number in 2 of 3 games this year, and he has the friendliest matchup of any Bengals pass catcher tonight.

What is the Best DFS Prop Pick for Monday Night Football?

The top DFS prop pick for tonight is Jaylen Waddle over 48.5 receiving yards. The Jets rank 31st in DVOA vs WR2s, making Waddle the best matchup play of the slate.

Who is the Best Sleeper DFS Pick Tonight?

The sleeper play is RJ Harvey over 10.5 receiving yards. The Bengals rank last in DVOA against receiving running backs, setting up perfectly for Harvey to break out.

Which Tight End Has the Best Matchup?

Both Mason Taylor (Jets) and Evan Engram (Broncos) are in prime spots. Miami struggles vs TEs (30th in DVOA) and Cincinnati gives up over 46 yards per game to the position, giving a slight edge to Taylor.

Final Thoughts: DFS Strategy for Monday Night Football

Tonight’s double header offers plenty of ways to gain an edge in daily fantasy sports contests. Using DVOA helps you cut through the noise and target the weakest points in each defense. Whether it’s Jaylen Waddle against the Jets’ WR2 coverage or Chase Brown working the check-down role, these props can help shape your DFS lineups and parlays.

 

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