When to Place Your NFL Parlay Picks

Timing is everything. This is true in football, where a split-second decision can lead to a game-winning touchdown, and it's just as true in parlay picking. For NFL fans who love the thrill of a parlay, knowing when to lock in your picks can be as critical as knowing who to pick. Submitting your picks too early might mean missing out on crucial information, while waiting too long could mean losing valuable odds.

Understanding the NFL Weekly Parlay Pickin Cycle

NFL lines for the upcoming week's games are typically released on Sunday evening or Monday morning. This kicks off a dynamic week where odds and point spreads shift based on a variety of factors. These include the amount of money being wagered on each side, team news, player injuries, and even weather forecasts.

For parlay players, these fluctuations are multiplied. Since a parlay combines multiple individual picks (or "legs") into one, a shift in the odds for even a single game can significantly alter the total potential payout. Navigating this requires a strategy. Do you prioritize getting the best possible odds early, or do you wait for more certainty, even if it means accepting a lower payout? Let's look at the week day-by-day.

Early Week Picking: Monday & Tuesday

As soon as the initial lines are posted, experienced parlay players get to work. Their goal is to identify and exploit any perceived inaccuracies in the opening odds set by sportsbooks.

The Case for Picking Early

Finding Value: Sportsbooks are sharp, but they aren't perfect. Opening lines are their initial assessment, and they can sometimes undervalue a team. If your own research and analysis points to a significant discrepancy between the odds and a team's actual chances of winning or covering the spread, picking early can lock in that value before the rest of the market catches on. For a parlay, finding value across multiple legs can lead to a substantial payout.
Beating the Market: The first picks placed on a line are often from respected sharps. Sportsbooks adjust their odds in response to this "smart money." By placing your parlay before these adjustments happen, you can effectively get better odds than those who wait until later in the week.

The Risks of an Early Pick

Limited Information: The biggest drawback to picking on Monday or Tuesday is the lack of information. Key injury reports are not yet released, and team game plans are still in development. A star player who seems healthy on Sunday could be ruled out by Wednesday, completely changing the outlook of a game.
Market Overreactions: Sometimes, the initial market movement is an overreaction to the previous week's results. A team that won a blowout game might see its opening line inflated, while a team that suffered a bad loss could be undervalued. Picking early means you might get caught up in this bias before the market corrects itself.

Verdict: Early week picking is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. It’s best suited for experienced players who are confident in their own analysis and have a high tolerance for risk. If you’ve done your homework and spot what you believe is a clear error in the opening lines, acting fast could pay off handsomely.

Mid-Week Picking: Wednesday & Thursday

By the middle of the week, the market begins to settle. The initial flurry of sharp money has influenced the lines, and more information becomes available to the public.

The Pros of a Mid-Week Pick

Injury Clarity: Wednesday is the most important day for injury news. NFL teams are required to release their first official injury report of the week, detailing player participation in practice. This information is crucial. Learning that a starting quarterback is practicing in full or that a key defensive player is sidelined can (and should) dramatically impact your picking decisions.
More Stable Lines: After the initial adjustments, betting lines tend to become more stable. While they can still move, the drastic swings of Monday and Tuesday are less common. This provides a clearer picture of how a game is being valued by both the sportsbooks and the betting public.
Sufficient Research Time: Waiting until mid-week gives you time to digest the previous week's games, listen to expert analysis, and conduct your own research without rushing. You can make a more informed decision than you could have on Monday.

The Cons of Waiting Until Mid-Week

Reduced Value: The trade-off for more information is that much of the early value is gone. If a line was genuinely soft on Monday, the market has likely corrected it by Wednesday. You may find yourself with less favorable odds on the teams you wanted to include in your parlay.
The Public's Influence: As the week progresses, more casual players start placing their picks. The public tends to focus on favorites, popular teams, and "overs." This influx of money can skew lines, sometimes creating "inflated" spreads that are harder to cover.

Verdict: Mid-week is often considered the sweet spot for many parlay players. It strikes a balance between having enough information to make an educated pick and the lines moving too unfavorably. Placing your picks on Wednesday or Thursday after the first injury reports are released is a solid and popular strategy.

Late Week & Gameday Picking: Friday to Sunday

As the weekend approaches, volume skyrockets. This is when the majority of casual players place their wagers, and the market becomes highly active.

The Advantages of Waiting

Maximum Information: By Friday, you have almost all the information you're going to get. Final injury reports are released, providing the official status (questionable, doubtful, out) for key players. You'll also have access to weather forecasts, which can be a significant factor, especially for outdoor games involving passing or kicking.
Fading the Public: Because so much public money comes in late, opportunities can arise to pick against the popular opinion. This strategy, known as "fading the public," involves picking on the less popular side, with the theory that the line has been inflated by public bias. If a heavy favorite's point spread seems too high due to public money, you might find value in taking the underdog in one leg of your parlay.

The Disadvantages of a Last-Minute Pick

Poor Odds: This is the most significant drawback. The lines you see on Sunday morning are often the "sharpest" of the week, meaning they have been molded by a full week of action and information. The obvious value is almost always gone.
Time Pressure: Waiting until the last minute can lead to rushed decisions. You might not have adequate time to research late-breaking news or feel pressured to make a pick just for the sake of having action on the games.

Verdict: Picking late in the week is best for those who prioritize certainty and want to have every last piece of information before locking in their picks. It's also the prime time for players who specialize in fading public trends. However, be prepared to accept less favorable odds than you might have found earlier in the week.

Craft Your Winning Strategy

There is no single "best" day to place your NFL parlay. The optimal time depends entirely on your personal picking philosophy and strategy.

For the Value Hunter: If you trust your models and analysis, picking on Monday or Tuesday allows you to pounce on soft opening lines before they're gone.
For the Balanced Player: If you prefer a mix of good odds and solid information, Wednesday or Thursday after the initial injury reports is your ideal window.
For the Cautious Analyst: If you need maximum certainty and want to factor in every variable, waiting until Friday or Saturday gives you the most complete picture.

Ultimately, successful sports picking is about finding a process that works for you. Track your picks, note when you placed them, and analyze your results. You may find that your best parlays were all placed on a Thursday, or that your early-week picks consistently lose due to unforeseen injuries. Use that data to refine your approach and turn your NFL Sundays into winning ones.

If you love parlays and are looking for a new way to compete against others for real cash prizes, download the Wanna Parlay app and start competing!